It was 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough query to answer. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
